Abstract: This paper analyses the effects of Quantitative easing (QE) on the US stock market by decomposing the S&P500 index into two components, its risk-neutral fundamental value, and the equity premium. The causal effects of QE are identified by using a state-of-the-art IV that is based on high-frequency price revisions of the medium-long end of the yield curve, triggered by FOMC policy announcements. The IV is constructed by controlling for both information and risk premia shocks to identify QE policy shocks. Findings from a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model suggest that a QE policy shock increases the stock index, due to a rise in the risk-neutral fundamental component and a fall in the equity premium component. Both components display persistence, with the equity premium response declining gradually over a period of two years.
Abstract: This study examines high-frequency market responses to ECB policy announcements, providing instrumental variables to identify four types of monetary policy shocks -- conventional policy, forward guidance, quantitative easing/tightening, and asymmetric country risk -- along with information shocks. Our findings show that non-linear information effects, especially prominent during episodes of acute market stress in euro area crises, are key to resolving puzzles in macroeconomic and financial variable responses reported in studies using high-frequency European data. The IVs obtained by controlling for these effects yield, in a VAR model, dynamic responses to monetary tightenings with contractionary impacts on output and prices.
Abstract: This paper examines the impact of monetary policy and risk premium shocks on financial markets in the Euro Area using an event study approach. The measure for shocks are obtained using factors extracted from high frequency surprises in financial market data that are orthogonal to information shocks&mdashconventional policy, forward guidance (FG), quantitative easing (QE) and country risk factor, the latter being specific to Euro Area sovereign bond markets. I find that all factors impact risk-free and sovereign bond yields. The QE factor has the largest impact on exchange rates. The risk factor has a significant impact on Italian and Spanish bonds, along with the biggest effect on the stock index among all factors. The effect of each factor differs in its persistence based on the maturity of sovereign bonds. The FG and QE factor had a greater effect, and for longer, in other asset classes of the financial market.